Pundit

Top of the Agenda: Iran Sending Arms to Syria

Yesterday I posted about the way the government is massaging / contorting the quarterly GDP growth figures to make its performance appear better than it actually is.

Last week Treasury released work on income and poverty that it commissioned from the University of Otago.

For months, John Key and other National Ministers have been reminding the public that “the economy has grown in ten of the last eleven quarters.” Here is Key,

Israel has managed to avert a massive problem for itself...for a while perhaps.

New Zealand viewers have just lost access to another public service television broadcaster – and most of us didn’t know we had it. It’s SBS, the public service broadcaster established to meet the needs of Australia’s ethnic minorities – a very supercharged model for our own late, lamented Stratos channel.

Colin Craig is a bundle of contradictions and surprises, but if you don't get that he's now a voice in New Zealand politics, you're not paying attention. And he will keep surprising us for a while yet, I think, as he kicks against the right-wing 'moral majority' box in which he's so quickly been placed.

President Obama made one gutsy call this week in his backing of gay marriage. It was pragmatic, and it was opportune.

It also represents a historic move forward in civil rights and is all the better coming from a man whose parents would not have been allowed to marry in some states only forty years ago due to other civil rights issues.

The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) recently ruled that a church’s billboard stating “Jesus Heals Cancer” was in breach of the Advertising Code of Ethics. The Equippers Church billboard was found to be offensive, misleading and social irresponsible.

As unreliable as self-selecting TV and website polls are, it's fair to assume that most voters are applauding National's decision to offer free contraception to women on the benefit and their teenage daughters. The strong puritanical streak in our national psyche takes a firm line with people who have children when they can't afford to provide for them.

We need the quants, and the poets, both. We need the activists and the Members of Parliament, the individuals, and the collectivists.

We need Green values. We need us all.

Let us begin.

So ends Beyond Today: a values story, to be launched at the Greens’ AGM on June 1, 2012.

Last week was a strange one and may just have been one of those tipping points for the Key Government. For me it began with a political corpse and ended with a real one.

Steven Joyce is one of the smoothest operators in politics - whether you agree with him or not, he's gets is evidential ducks in a row and you can only guess at the number of spreadsheets he's crafted to back his decisions. Which is why the twisted nature of his student allowance reforms is kind of surprising.

How twisted, you ask?

According to the NZ Herald (which in turn cites TV3's The Nation ... sorry, Tim!), Rodney Hide has done with politics, is busy renovating his house and moving on with his post-Parliamentary life. Good for him.

After the first round of the French presidential election saw a record vote for the anti-immigration National Front candidate Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Sarkozy’s advisor Patrick Buisson has orchestrated a reorientation of Centre-right incumben

Last time I checked, Obama never claimed he killed Osama, but why let the facts get in the way of a good piece of Republican whinging?

It’s campaign season stateside and each political party is equally adept at taking the moral high ground when it suits (remember ‘high’ is relative as we are talking politics).

The political scandals and sideshows of Autumn 2012 have much in common. They are structured on screeds of speculation and scraps of substance.

After two days of appearing on TV doing a very good impression of a befuddled senior citizen in the latter stages of senile dementia (as well as engaging in what is probably the most bizarre phone inte

It's all about standards -- that crucial question in politics of where you draw the line of acceptable behaviour. When it comes to Kim Dotcom's donation to John Banks' mayoral campaign, Prime Minister John Key can sit uncomfortably but safely on the legal side of the line. For now. But the thing about politics is that lines have a habit of changing.

Having crunched the latest Poll of Poll numbers, I have come to the conclusion that many in the New Zealand commentariat are doing pretty good Headless Chicken Little impressions.

Politics costs money. Anyone who has had anything to do with any sort of campaign - be it to pressure the Council to fix the potholes in your street, or to get the leader of a political party elected as Prime Minister of New Zealand - knows this. 

I took my son to an ANZAC Day service today. He's three and it was his first attendance. We talked about soldiers, not wanting to fight, sometimes needing to fight mean people and bravery. The sun shone like no other ANZAC Day I can remember, and with my grandad's World War I medals in my pocket I thought, this isn't my national day.

As New Zealand prepared for ANZAC Day, Prime Minister John Key made a surprise announcement: New Zealand could end its military commitment to Afghanistan as early as next year. The previous timetable – affirmed only a fortnight ago by Defence Minister Jonathan Coleman – had us leaving some time in 2014. So, what’s changed?

Kim Dotcom recently spent a month on remand in Mt Eden prison after the police agreed to act on behalf of US authorities. The police took away his cars and froze his bank accounts.

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce did his own unique version of the 'Dead Parrot' sketch on Q+A this morning. Just as Michael Palin once memorably stood at a shop counter insisting that a dead bird was alive, Joyce argued that white was black when it came to the Sky City conventional centre deal.

It's been coming for a while, but QV has now confirmed that our love affair with bricks and mortar is back at record levels.

Prior to the 2011 election, Judith Collins announced that National planned to legislate to permit the ongoing "civil detention" of offenders deemed at high risk of future sexual or violent offending even after their jail sentences were complete.

The official release of French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s campaign manifesto completes the spectrum of policies on offer, leaving  citizens a fortnight to make their final judgements before the first round of the elections.

TVNZ can’t afford to operate non-commercial television channels – but it can afford to pay commercially attractive salaries, with 10% of its staff earning more than $100,000, members of its top management and sales staff sharing bonuses totaling $1.8 million, and 32 employees wandering round with $10,000 credit cards. And in the real commercial world, it probably must.

The Overseas Investment Office's recommendation on the Crafar Farms sale is sitting on the desks of Maurice Williamson and Jonathan Coleman, ticking away like that cliched old time bomb.

Combinations matter, and can make complex things either better or worse than the sum of the individual parts. What’s that? You want a folksy introductory example? OK:

Do you like chorizo? How about asparagus? And sorbet? Yes? Then you’ll love my new chorizo and asparagus sorbet! Wait, where are you going…

A certain air of uncertainty has crept into the French presidential campaign in recent days, augmented considerably by an LH-2/Yahoo poll result putting Front de Gauche (Left Front) candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon in third place with 15% of the vote in the first round of the run-off system.

The latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll is a kick in the pants for Labour. After a ministerial resignation and a fortnight where the whiff of cronyism was never far from National, the governing party can still command more than 50 percent in the polls. That's astounding.

Just a mistake. A misjudgment. Surely not criminal. So says Stephen Franks, and I'm sure others, in response to the sentencing of the four Lombard directors this past week. The line goes that the shame, and perhaps civil damages, are as far as society should go in punishing these otherwise decent men. I'm not buying.

So the police investigate a complaint by the Prime Minister against a member of the media, where it is alleged that a "private communication" was intentionally intercepted using a covert recording device.

Just a very quick note on the announcement by Judith Collins that she will sue Trevor Mallard, Andrew Little and Radio NZ for defamation ... mainly because I've yet to see any commentary by those who ought to be talking about it ... and yes, Steven Price and Graeme Edgeler, I am looking at you.

You may recall that our tax system got a major overhaul in the 2010 Budget, with income tax rates going down while GST went up. This changed substantially the shares of tax revenue being paid by poor people and by rich people. Poor people pay for more of the government than they used to, while rich people pay for less.

The term "a Solomonic judgment" is often misused. The point of King Solomon's "they-get-half-a-baby-each" decision, after all, was not actually that cleaving the infant in twain would best serve the needs of justice, but rather that proposing this outcome enabled him to see who was the child's real mother.

Top of the Agenda: UN Security Council Supports Syria Peace Plan

The loss of Nick Smith from National's top ranks has the whiff of Greek tragedy. Or perhaps a Disney cartoon. You can almost see the little angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other. Several times Smith does the right thing and refuses to get involved in a friend's ACC case. But then he relents – the devil gets in his ear – and it's all over.

Top of the Agenda: French Police in Standoff with Shooting Suspect

It's a lock. Ten out of ten. No room for doubt. Bill English is going to deliver a surplus a surplus in 2014/15 come hell or low tax take. That was the message from the Finance Minister on Q+A.

Top of the Agenda: Obama, Cameron in Show of Unity

All the detail and distraction in the Ports of Auckland dispute make it look like a complicated industrial mess. And on one level, it is. Depending on your point of view, it's all about who controls the port, or work-life balance or bad faith bargaining. But the two central points for me come back to the Auckland Council's ownership of the port.

Top of the Agenda: Panetta Visits Afghanistan

On the surface, New Zealand’s transition to digital TV broadcasting is going well. 83% of our homes with television have made the conversion -  and we are still six months out from the date when the first of our regions says “Good Night Kiwi” to the old, spectrum-hungry era of analogue transmission.

Labour MPs will feel happier than they have for some time after David Shearer's performance on Q+A this Sunday.

After the election in November, pollsters took a well-deserved break for the remainder of 2011, much to the relief of politics-weary news watchers.  Now that we are in 2012, however, the first few post-election polls are trickling in. We have seen four Roy Morgan polls and a TV3 poll so far, but nothing yet from TVNZ, the Herald, or Fairfax.

To uncover and address the many reasons why New Zealand women continue to be under-represented as leaders, a friend and I started Women’s Futures Month for March 2012 from our home city of Christchurch, the birthplace of the suffrage movement.

My summertime reading has included David Lange’s autobiography My Life. Yep I know, it’s a few years old now, but being written on his deathbed made it candid. It’s a great insight into the man, running the country and at times is hilarious.

Top of the Agenda: Putin Claims Victory Amid Allegations of Fraud

Let's call a spade a spade. Or, at least, be frank about what the government hopes to do with its spade: It wants more mining and drilling in this country – more than most New Zealanders are comfortable with. And it wants to convince you and me that's a great idea. All this talk of "discourse" and "conversation" is all strategy.

It is now very clear why Republican nominee wannabe Rick Santorum disparages President Obama’s hopes that all American kids can go to university.

It is because he wants American kids to be molded in the image of that blowhard at the heart of the Republican party - Rush Limbaugh.

Pretend you are a judge ... one who has worked your way up to sitting on New Zealand's highest court. And you have a case in front of you. It is a dispute between (at least) two parties, who want you to say what you think is the correct legal resolution to their conflict.

Of the issues that the Electoral Commission has to look at in its review of MMP, I predict the question of what threshold a party should have to attain before getting proportional representation in Parliament will be the most fraught.

It appears Hollywood knows a thing or two about unintended consequences...particularly when Iran is involved.

In awarding Iranian Asghar Farhadi’s ‘A Separation’ the little golden statue for best foreign film, it should have done so with a ‘must watch’ advisory to a couple highly combative politicians – Iran’s Ahmadinejad and Israel’s Netanyahu.

Why?

I worked as a National Organiser for the Australia Labor Party during the Hawke years, when Kevin Rudd was a functionary in the office of the leader of the ALP in Queensland and Julia Gillard was the current or just departed president of the Australian Union of Students and active in the majority socialist left faction of the ALP in Victoria.

Two polls this week show support for National slipping, reinforcing my belief that not only has National missed out on any sort of honeymoon after November's election, but its popularity has likely peaked under John Key, never again to reach those heady days of 2009, or even late last year.

Top of the Agenda: Eurozone Approves New Greek Bailout

Just when Americans need strong political debate offering alternatives to Obama’s policies, the Republicans have locked themselves in the bedroom.

If her speech is anything to go by, it was a confident and combative Metiria Turei who took to the stage at the Greens' policy conference in Palmerston North yesterday, looking over what the new Greens had created and declaring "it was very good". And why not?

Broadcasting Standards Authority chair Peter Radich blames the Broadcasting Act. He says it is “old and open to interpretation” He is right on both counts – but wrong on the central issue raised in the row over Prime Minister John Key’s hour-long stint as a show host on Radio Live in the run-up to the last election.

I've spent a lot of time with my two year-old son this summer, often in a rich, if exhausting, world of imagination. There are dragons, animal rescues, and more, but sometimes he worries that I'm not quite getting the game and he reassures me that "it's just 'tending Daddy".

As I've just written in part one of this post, Justice Miller's decision on the Crafar Farms keeps the debate on overseas ownership alive a little longer and over-turns the prevailing wisdom in Wellington. But where does it leave the government?

Privilege – that's what it's all about. You've got to earn it. The ruling by Justice Forrie Miller to set aside the government's decision to allow the sale of the Crafar Farms to Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin has turned on its head the political – and, it seems, legal – assumptions about foreign ownership of our most sensitive assets.

Top of the Agenda: New Doubts Over Greek Bailout Deal

It is no surprise at all that Israel has blamed Iran for the bombs targeting Israeli embassies in New Delhi and Georgia.

Where it does become difficult is assessing whether Israel will consider suspicion of Iran as casus belli for launching its desperately wanted attack on the nascent nuclear state.

Late last year, the Institute of Policy Studies published my book about tax in New Zealand.

We all know that Pundit readers are the best, most informed, wisest and subscribe to the highest possible standards of personal hygiene in the entire blogosphere.

(Yeah, Kiwipolitico ... I'm looking at you and asking when you last cleaned under your fingernails?)

Top of the Agenda: Syrian Forces Bombard Homs for Sixth Day

Everyone should read the iwi consultation paper on the Governnent’s plan to convert the four energy sector State-owned enterprises into “Mixed Ownership” businesses with 49% of their shares in private hands.

Just a very quick note on the Electoral Commission's decision to refer the "Prime Minister's Hour" on Radio Live to the Police as a potential breach of the Broadcasting Act.

So a couple of weeks ago I was pontificating away on National Radio's "On the Radar" slot about this, that and the other thing.

Good grief. Piri Weepu is shown bottle-feeding his six-month-old daughter Taylor on an anti-smoking ad, and somehow this image of nurturing and positive fathering is construed as an attack on breastfeeding. As my nearly-three-year-old would say, "What?!"

As the sun sets on another Waitangi Day, I want to offers three cheers – one for Prime Minister John Key, one for the Waitangi protesters and one for all New Zealanders who got out and enjoyed themselves.

Reading a Treasury briefing can be a morbid experience; they are the bureaucratic embodiment of cynicism, seeing the price of everything and the value of nothing. The latest offering to the incoming minister makes you wonder whether the word "invest" is simply too long for the Treasury analysts, so they fall back on a nice short one – "cut".

Diplomacy failed spectacularly at the United Nations this weekend.

Now Russia and China have pinned their colours to saving Bashar al-Assad, their UN Security Council vetoes have also emboldened the Syrian dictator.

In effect Assad has been given a licence to kill.

While the United Nations Security Council panders to Russia’s demands over what it will and will not permit be done with Syria, the killing squads of Bashar al-Assad systematically get on with the job of eliminating those who dare to question the regime.

A fresh release of documents obtained under the Official Information Act highlight the tension between the public service obligations of funding agency NZ On Air and the commercial imperatives now driving our two major television networks.

I suspect the sudden threat by the Maori Party to "reconsider its relationship with National" if partialy-privatised (sorry ...

The three month-long trial of a Montreal man, his second wife and his son has finally ended with the Afghanistan-born trio being found guilty of murdering three of the family’s girls and the first wife.

Anyone at all surprised by the sale of the 16 Crafar Farms to Shanghai Pengxin? Thought not. It was utterly predictable for two reasons – 1) that company offered far and away the most money and 2) the company offers export opportunities into China at a juncture in history New Zealand when we stand or fall on our ability to sell protein to that country.

From a distance, Canterbury politics look as swampy as the land the city is built on. Environment Canterbury argued for so many years about a plan for its own water supply that it was taken over by government. Now, Christchurch City Council's incredibly clumsy support for a pay rise for its CEO is prompting complaints about dysfunction and disunity.

It's running late, so this is probably, really, kinda only for people in Auckland and surrounds... But if you and a friend like to go to the Laneway Festival on Monday (Akld anniversary) and don't want to spend $127 per ticket, we've got two pairs of tickets to give away (that's four tickets, folks).

In the long, miserable story of what was once called "the war on terror", it's hard to identify turning points. Since the foolhardy US invasion of Afghanistan in particular, it's been hard to find many gems of hope in that trash-heap of a war – until this month, that is.

I've been asked by a colleague at an overseas law school to contribute to a special issue of their journal. The topic for the issue is: "The worst decision by a nation's top court of the last 25 years."

Over on Scoop, Tom Frewen has done a commendable bit of digging into NZ on Air's response to TV3's decision to screen the documentary "Inside Child Poverty" – a NZ on Air funded documentary highly critical of successive governments' policy on the issue – 4 d

Scoop yesterday lived up to its name and revealed New Zealand on Air minutes showing that the government's broadcasting funding agency is, in journalist Tom Frewen's words, considering "a move to censor television programmes likely to embarrass the government dur

TAG Oil is very excited. It wants to turn the East Coast of the North Island – “literally leaking oil and gas”!! – into the “Texas of the south”, hosting thousands of oil wells.

The Destiny Church's plan to build a new "city" in Wiri, South Auckland is following what's become a tried and true path for any stories involving Brian Tamaki's controversial movement – Tamaki utters hyperbole aimed at believers, media report said hyperbole to wider audience, a

Top of the Agenda: Assad Criticizes Arab League

At the start of President Obama's first term there was talk of him being the first "Pacific President" – being born in Hawaii and schooled in Indonesia gave him a rare westward view of the world, a perspective that's different from the focus on Europe and the Middle-East, which dominates on America's east coast.

The new National-led Government delivered a fine present as it shut down for Christmas – a big dump of official documents on its plans to extend what it calls the “Mixed Ownership Model”.  The Sale of the Century is scheduled to start in the third quarter this year and continue all the way through to next election in 2014.

Given that the misnamed "tea tapes" (I guess "tea digitally recorded conversation" is a bit much of a mouthful) was one of the two most important things to ha

Today, 38 years too late, I grasped an important fact. I seem to be living on some sort of a different planet. I am here in body (more or less, depending) but somewhere else, in my soul.

At 11:00am on Friday, 23 December, Stratos Television vanished quietly from the programme menus offered by the Sky, Freeview, and Telstra Clear distribution networks.

The year's winding right down now, and thanks the stars 2011 is over. Happy to see it go by. Eleanor and I are off for a few days at the beach before our second child is due.

The other pundits are all able to post if they can muster the energy – thanks for your work today Mike! But I imagine it'll be meagre bloggy rations here at Pundit for the next week or so.

A wise old mate once told me that if you want to understand any industry, enterprise or activity, just do the worst job it has to offer. There can't be any worse job in politics than being a scrutineer at a recount where your candidate slowly, vote by miscounted vote, loses a tenuous hold on an electorate.

Top of the Agenda: Arab Monitors in Syria

Just two sleeps until Christmas. Can you hear the sleigh bells? So what's underneath the political Christmas tree this year? I know, they haven't all been good boy and girls, but let's just assume they all deserve something for their dedicated public service.

It’s almost New Year, and so 2011 is over. It’s been a tough year for our children, our tamariki, with several appalling cases of child abuse in the headlines.

The "Occupy Aotearoa" movement (if it ever really deserved such a grand title) looks to be dwindling away to nothing. Yesterday, the last few tents were taken down in Dunedin's Octagon, as the protest members decided to vacate the area to allow for unimpeded Christmas and New Years celebrations.

Last year we learned that the Conservation Minister and the Energy and Resources Minister would both decide about giving access to conservation land for mining. One has an interest in the minerals beneath, the other in the land and the creatures who live there, on behalf of us: the public, the land holders.

Labour's choice of David Shearer as the party's new leader represents a fair bit of gauntlet and a hell of a gamble. The gamble is obvious – you have to go back to founder Harry Holland in 1919 to find Labour choosing a leader with less parliamentary experience.

Although a National government has been returned, in a way Kiwis did “vote for Nature” as Forest & Bird's election campaign asked. The prospects for Nature in the next three years are bleak, but all is not lost. A battle or two might be won by lobbying.

Won't tomorrow be fun? It's like election day all over again. Except National may not enjoy this one as much as two weeks ago.

Yes, the specials are confirmed tomorrow and the final shape of parliament will be known. Plus, the small matter of our electoral system will be decided.

Charter schools are coming. Should we be concerned? I think there are some reasons to be cautious about charter schools, but they are not the reasons that have dominated the New Zealand commentariat.

"Charter schools will only select great students"

The Greens have made a feature out of slow, but steady, organic growth.

Having entered Parliament in the Alliance, gained independence in 1999 with an electorate win in Coromandel, maintained (sometimes precariously) a core vote above the 5 percent threshold, the party has now elected two new co-leaders and sworn in a whole second generation of MPs.

Is that the whiff of ideology in the wind? The National-ACT supply and confidence deal will lead John Key's second term government off the first term's more pragmatic road and down some very rocky by-ways indeed.

The Labour leadership race is closer than is being spun, in part because Phil Goff's people still have their hands on the spin levers and Goff is backing David Shearer. As in any election, this race will come down to the undecideds.

It is very difficult to believe that the attack on the British Embassy in Tehran was a spontaneous act by a group of young men who suddenly decided to teach the Brits a lesson for ratcheting up sanctions against the nascent nuclear state.

The Greens will never be an environment party, and have never been a left-wing party. The Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand is neither left nor right because that is what their charter says, what their policy shows, and what the existential global challenge, that is their raison d’etre, requires.

In the Matrix films you get a sense of deja vu when the machines controlling your experience of the world change something. In real life, you get the uncanny sense that you've said and done exactly the same things before as the powers-that-be refuse to change.

Here's the bullet-point version, to begin:

It's hard to know what to say about Labour's leadership tussle. There's a logic inside the beltway and even inside the caucus room that doesn't always translate to the rest of the country. But it's the rest of the country the caucus needs to keep front of mind.

My new theory of the Greens is recycled. The new thing is the old thing, really.

In 2011 we changed some things, and won some votes: not a world-changing number of votes, but a historic number, enough for some more Green growth.

Tonight Scoop allows you to track each electorate as the votes roll in, with their Election Map designed by Keith Ng. Cleverly, you can also compare tonight's results to 2008. Hours of fun to be had.

Happy election night!

It's MMP and it's all about the party vote, of course. But this election a bunch of electorate seats actually look really interesting. And it's not just the obvious ones.

The stand-out two are Epsom and Ohariu because entire parties - and coalition partners for National - depend on them. Can ACT and United Future, respectively, stay alive?

Well, it's nearly here. A short and sharp campaign that, regardless of the result, has changed the policy landscape for the next election or three and intensified the 2014 race. Let's run through what we've learnt since the All Blacks won the World Cup.

Five new polls have come out since we last updated our poll of polls. Four of them came in the last 24 hours. Together, they show National continuing to be able to govern alone, according to our latest estimates (available on the left hand side of the pundit front page). We estimate National will win 52% of the vote tomorrow, giving them 67 seats.

Bryce Edwards teaches over at the Politics Department here at Otago. It would be fair to say that he's been somewhat active in commentating on this election campaign.

With only a few days left until polling day I thought I’d give you a run down on my picks for the Maori seats. Some of the most interesting battles are happening in the Maori seats, or so I think anyway, and the ramifications of a Maori Party win or a Mana Movement win are significant.

It's been tough being Conservative this campaign. With a capital C that is. Being conservative is de rigueur this election. But the nascent party being built with Colin Craig's millions has had a tough time getting attention.

At this very late stage of the campaign, the biggest fear of every political party has to be a low turnout.

Phil Goff had the details and the studio craft, but after a nervous start John Key had the authority. It's one of the things that a Prime Minister gains simply by going into work every day - and Key got the tone right to edge Goff in tonight's debate. Not that the legacy of his night's work won't have ramifications.

So Bradley Ambrose has failed to get his declaration in the High Court that the "cup of tea" conversation between John Key and John Banks was not a "private communication".

Egyptians sure are learning the hard way that their military, which only nine months ago proclaimed itself to be ‘of the people’ is really ‘of itself’ and lead by a brassed-up Mubarak sans the charisma.

For me, Goff won three of the four segments, but Key finished strongest; Goff won on policy, Key won on coalitions.That's my call on the TV3 debate this evening.

The start of the last week of the campaign seems to have moved on from Teapot-not-quite-gate to "what about Winston?" ... and more particularly, "what happens if he is back in Parliament?" ... and even more particularly, "what happens if he is back in Parliament and holds the balance of power?"

Five days to go and the stages have been set; the only question left is how the leaders will handle their lines.

What do we know about how the campaign will evolve over the next few days? Quite a lot already, as it happens.

There have been four polls published since we updated the Poll of Polls last Monday. Our updated estimates show continuing trends against National and Labour (each of whom drop about half a point this week), and in favour of the Greens (who gain most of a point). We now estimate the Greens at almost 11% support and climbing.

Despite the various calls to "move on" from Teapot-not-quite-gate, it's still bubbling away (see what I did there?) And it's producing some strange reactions in people who normally you can rely on to be sane and sensible in a crisis.

So, let's just say it out loud, shall we? What do you think about National governing alone? Well, not precisely alone because they will wear a fig leaf of coalition deals with United Future, the Maori Party and perhaps ACT, if voters permit. But what do New Zealanders think about the prospect of having a single party having a majority of votes in the House?

With the tea tapes dominating political discussion at the moment, you’re forgiven if you find this post a little bland. I’m going to deal with a dry topic – Maori policy.

Just a very quick post on what I think the Police are up to in serving search warrants on news organisations for material relating to "Teapotgate" (there you go, Steven Price).

The teapot tape fuss seems to have turned in the past 24 hours; not in John Key's favour and not entirely due to anything he's done wrong.

Top of the Agenda: Syrian Security Forces Clash with Opposition

I was staggered to hear on television Prime Minister John Key say that although he was "not entirely unhappy" with MMP, he intended to vote for change. The PM said while he likes proportionality, he "slightly prefers the characteristics of Supplementary Member (SM)".

Excellent.

As polls continue to show National postioned to govern alone just two weeks out from the election, voters are going to have to confront a stark choice. Do they want any government, let alone this one, to govern on its own.

For what was meant to be a short photo-op designed to remind the good folk of Epsom of their duty to Party and Nation, the cup of tea between John Key and John Banks has all turned a bit Alice in Wonderland.

There have been eight polls released since we last updated the Poll of Polls two weeks ago. Eight! In those eight polls, each making estimates of seven or more parties’ support, there are always likely to be a couple of outliers. The biggest of those, of course, was Roy Morgan’s 4.5% estimate for New Zealand First.

I don't think the CNBC team in Rome would mind me telling you that they're knackered. (A bit like Roman politics? - Ed).

Is Winston Peters the luckiest main in New Zealand right now?

He should make sure he buys a lotto ticket this weekend, because lady luck has settled on his shoulder.

The world’s nuclear watchdog report arguing “credible proof” Iran might be capable of producing a nuclear warhead has sparked dangerous chat of a military pre-emptive strike to take out the Ayatollah’s baby.

It had all the fun a candidates debate should: ACT's John Banks said Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia - enemies on most policies - were high quality MPs and a great ad for MMP; Davia Parker said Labour should have introduced a capital gains tax when last in power, but was not brave enough; Paul Goldsmith said it was tough to be a man and wanted to be a man's MP; Green David Hay sang a Dear John

When David Farrar asked the question on Facebook, "Should a journalism school be asking the question of its students, 'what politician would they most like to fuck'," I thought he was kidding. But the link he provided backed up the poser.

If you're in Auckland tonight, there are two candidates' debates worth stepping out for on opposite sides of town.

I'll be hosting an Epsom candidates' debate at Somervell Presbyterian on the cnr of Remuera Rd and Greenlane East tonight from 7.30pm. All the candidates will be there and taking questions from the floor.

As the days roll by and the Greens retain their giddy, double-digit heights in the polls, it's time to wonder whether the perennial underperformers have finally cracked it and convinced a new cohort of voters that the party can be trusted with their vote.

I don't often get things right. I thought the All Blacks would put 20 points or more on the French in the Rugby World Cup 2011 (TM) final. I predicted Alpha Plan would be the next U2 - and if you don't know who I mean, you weren't there, man.

Shane Jones knows it's do or die in Tamaki Makaurau. A win equals redemption; a loss spells the end of his career.

Here's one of those moral-dilemma situations that get put to philosophy 101 students to illustrate the variety of forms of moral reasoning. You've got a group of (say) five people who have almost served their jail sentences for a crime.

Voters don't like it, don't want it, but the polls say they'll most likely go along with it – National's plan to sell off chunks of five state assets.

Did you enjoy your weekend of dorky people with dueling fiscal spreadsheets and confused reporters trying to play umpire? Me neither. The latest as at 5:46pm Sunday is that National has another, newer spreadsheet, which says the cost of Labour’s policies is $15.6b.

The Occupy [Insert Place Name Here] protest movement has sparked a whole lot of head scratching "but what does it all mean?" analysis, without yet reaching any widely accepted conclusions.

That may be the sound of the door slamming on Labour's vain election hopes. Winston Peters has just announced that he won't enter a government with anyone after this election. Not National or Labour. Or the cat's mother, for that matter. To quote his speech:

Phil Goff says he will “show John the money” today, providing Labour’s costings for its various policies. He says he will borrow about $2.6b more than National over the first three years.

Ok, two polls late today, but one clear message. While the green shoots of spring are popping up around the country, it's still winter in Labour-land. While the party can't have expected a serious swing so soon, it must feel as if someone has just burst its balloon. It would have hoped for some sign of change.

New Zealand’s only dedicated public service television channel, TVNZ 7, will cease in 2012. The government has chosen to discontinue it’s funding.

So National's welfare policy is out. I'm not in a position to piece together much analysis, but here are some pointed thoughts:

UNESCO’s vote to recognise Palestine is gutsy on the part of the UN body, symbolic yet encouraging for the Palestinians and very revealing with respect to the lip service paid to democracy by the United States and those who cling to its increasingly shredded skirts.

Top of the Agenda: Greek Referendum Complicates Euro Rescue

National released its new welfare policies yesterday, to a chorus of approval from the Get Tough brigade. The speeches were their style! Hiding in the actual policy, however, are some pretty odd policy choices. Here are two:

Breeding for a business

Consider these two families:

I'll let you in on a secret. Jean-Claude Trichet is considered something of a heart-throb in the CNBC newsroom in London. To which some of you might say, Jean-Claude who? I'm not talking about the 'Muscles from Brussels', Jean-Claude van Damme; this Jean-Claude is more like the 'Neon from Lyon', if you'll excuse the stretch.

I'm suprised by the commentators who have talked about John Key winning last nights One News Election debate. It's true that there were no killing blows and on points of substance the Prime Minister often seemed more authoritative. Thing is, that's not what people takeaway from a debate such as this.

Duncan Garner’s report on TV3’s latest poll was poorly done. I usually think our TV political journos do a reasonable job despite their lack of familiarity with the statistical concepts they are reporting on. Not today.

I wrote this post for TVNZ yesterday, but wanted to share all of it with Pundit readers, because it's something we've discussed more than once and several of you have really helped me get my head around this... It's why superannuation matters, how it's perceived as the "good welfare" and how the real problem we face is from the "bad welfare". Anyway, here 'tis:

For the past few months I've been living without TV. Actually, there is a TV upstairs, attached to a DVD player that plays box-sets of shows like Treme and Luther. And teh interwebz brings me all sorts of contemporary programmes direct to my computer screen (all sourced, I hasten to note, from legitimate websites that in no way involve any form of copyright infringement).

Amongst Labour's ground-breaking announcement that it will campaign on raising the retirement age and introducing compulsory Super, another major decision got little attention.

The Opposition says it will also kick-start government contributions to the New Zealand Super Fund, which were suspended by National in 2009.

Top of the Agenda: EU Leaders Reach Deal on Debt Crisis

Timing is everything. Whether it comes down to the woman of your dreams, the perfect job or when you get into the All Blacks, timing is of the essence. It's the same in politics.

And Labour is rolling the dice when it comes to the timing of its policy announcements and campaign strategy.

When Simon Power tabled his Prisoners' and Victims' Claims Amendment Bill on October 13, it brought to mind one of the most shameful incidents of the New Zealand prison system.

ACT’s future looks bleak this year under the leadership of Don “I’ll just leave the country for a week in the middle of my election campaign” Brash and John “not quite a Lazarus of Epsom” Banks.

It’s getting colder in London. We had a lingering summer, but that is over. Not such a great time to be on the streets for any longer than you have to.The central heating goes on and the thick duvet is very welcome.

If you want to try and bury bad news around Parliament, release it on the Friday before a holiday weekend.

I've just come from Eden Park on the morning of the Rugby World Cup final, and I've got to say it was a treat to be there in the silence and calm, knowing that in 12 hours the place will be a cauldron of hope, nerves and excitement.

The guys who went to war in their family cars have won. They have liberated Libya, with a good deal of NATO help, and are their nation’s heroes.

The Los Angeles Times has produced a detailed set of estimates about how much value each teacher in Los Angeles adds to their classroom. That is hugely valuable information. New Zealand’s education establishment should be doing something similar.

Top of the Agenda: Greek Workers Go on Strike

A drive around the Epsom electorate is a study in campaign strategy. Here, the machinations of the country's best political minds are painted in vivid colour.

It's the day of the 'big policy announcements' (BPAs). The major parties at least must be confident of an All Blacks victory, as they both seem to have decided that we're capable of ignoring the rugby for a few minutes at least.

A slight clammy feeling. General anxiety. A sense that something is missing or out of place. Heightened frustration or even distress.

Since the Rena ran aground and began spilling oil and other nastiness into the Bay of Plenty, there has been a lot of finger pointing at the government. Was it prepared? Was the response too slow to get going? Was the response good enough?

The other week, Justice Minister Simon Power gave a fantastic valedictory speech to the House. It capped off a lot of good things that he has done - in particular, I admire how he has handled the issue of changes to electoral finance rules and setting up the referendum on MMP.

Pundit friends,

You will have notice that recently we've become the the focus of a deluge of spam. We are working on this, and I'm really sorry to you all that you're having to suffer this. Sorry again.

Still, could be worse... At least you haven't spent half the evening deleting hundreds of fake member accounts from the past two months, as I have!

A couple of "free speech" issues have arisen in the last week - one a bit ho-hum, the other somewhat more serious.

But is it enough to change the campaign trajectory? That's the question around what's turned into a dire week for the National Party.

Labour, you've got to say, has had terrible luck this term. Every time there seemed to be some poll movement or National wobbled (BMWs, for example), a natural disaster, mine explosion or own-goal by one of its own MPs came to the government's rescue.

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer man at a better time.

Is this, finally, the hairline crack in the impregnable hull? - will the Rena oil spill be the thing that exposes what lies beneath Mr Key, and swamps whatever public appetite there was for his government's offshore oil policy, little enough at the best of times?

Top of Wayne Mapp’s things-to-do list before he turns in his Ministerial ticket and leaves Parliament should be the release of the findings of inquiries he instigated in August last year into the possibility that prisoners arreste

The minor parties are going to provide much of the best action in this election, and none more so than the Mana Party as Hone Harawira fights to hold Te Tai Tokerau. And while he's starting in pole position, I suspect he's got a struggle on his hands.

Does New Zealand need to build a new 1,000 bed prison at Wiri?

The “Occupy Wall St” protests are about to enter their third week, and suddenly America is paying attention.

Here in Britain, the wartime poster with stark white lettering on a red background which says 'Keep Calm and Carry On' has become ubiquitous. It's found its way onto mugs, t-shirts and screensavers.

So the Justice and Electoral Committee has reported back on the Video Camera Surveillance (Temporary Measures) Bill.

Three new polls came out over the weekend. Collectively, they show National gaining further ground, increasing its support to level last seen in late 2009. All the smaller parties are slowly losing ground.

While today the men of New Zealand have joined the women in their fascination with Daniel Carter's groin, the New Zealand economy is looking like it's pulled a muscle as well, after the double downgrades on Friday. Neither are good news for a government hopeful of an easy run-in to November's election.

But neither are as bad as you may think.

I've met Don Brash twice.

The first time was during the 2005 election campaign when I was in a shopping mall in Henderson. I don't think he recognised me because he thrust some sort of electronic device under my nose and invited me to calculate my tax cut.

National retains a very large lead in our latest Poll of Polls, and that lead is growing wider still as we move closer to the election.

When Governor William Hobson famously declared "He iwi tahi tatou" (We are all one people) to the rangatira who signed the Treaty of Waitangi, he left an awkward legacy. I imagine he meant well and all, perhaps as he saw it merely offering some noble words of colonial unity.

Please forgive yet another post on the topic of the Government's "fix" for the problem of hidden video camera surveillance, but I have been invited to give evidence t

Politicians, regardless of where they come from, are supposed to be professional. We pay them heaps of money to think carefully about the problems facing their country, to propose workable solutions, to debate the merits of various proposals, and to implement their ideas if we let them.

I got a letter emailed to me today from Attorney-General Chris Finlayson.

With all the attention on this rugby tournament, it's easy to forget that the 2011 general election is just around the corner. The countdown's begun, with the first hoardings going up in Auckland over the weekend.

Rodney Hide must be laughing in his grave, to use one of the great old gags. ACT's political fortunes have gone from bad to worse with the announcement that No. 2 John Boscawen is stepping down from parliament to spend more time with his family.

 In American politics the phone call warning of foreign policy disaster is always tipped to come at 3 in the morning.  Presidents, as presidential hopefuls are quickly made aware, are

Given that there's now real debate about the best way to deal with the aftermath of the Supreme Court's decision in Hamed v R - the case that calls into question the Police's power to use covert video surveillance to gather evidence - here's some more thoughts on that issue.

What's perhaps most amazing about Europe's growth story -- or non-growth story--- is that markets and the folk who watch them continue to react to new data as if it still contains some element of surprise.

Yesterday's IMF growth forecasts are a case in point.

A little something
I never go hungry
But I'm not wildly enthusiastic about cooking
I tend to eat very, very simple food
I cook myself steak
Plus either potato
Or frozen peas
Or frozen corn
Or tomato
Or something

My Catholicism
If I'm in a hurry, it's Burger King
Or McDonald's
Occasionally KFC

Last week the West Coast Environment Network, Forest & Bird, and others filed appeals against the resource consent granted three weeks earlier, to coal miner Bathurst Resources.

Last week, the Dominion Post reported the sad case of Mr Craig Andrew Blair who robbed a bank in Rotorua – not for financial gain but so that he would be sent back to prison.

My last post set out the Supreme Court's decision on the use of secretly filmed evidence against those accused of participating in the Urewera "training camps"/"terror group"/"consciousness raising sessions" (or whatever you wish to term them).

I'm one of the council appointed directors of Auckland Transport and so out of solidarity with its beleaguered officials I attended the Auckland Council Committee meeting which reviewed the disorder surrounding the opening Rugby World Cup game the preceding Friday.

Back in 2006, some information found its way to the ears of the NZ Police. Apparently a bunch of Maori activists, environmentalists, social justice campaigners and the like were gathering in the Urewera back-blocks and talking revolution. What is more, they were doing so while playing with guns and other nasty stuff.

This time three years ago, a two-word phrase seemed to be gaining unprecedented coverage in New Zealand: Nanny State.

Erin Leigh's ongoing journey through the New Zealand legal process has taken another step towards some sort of resolution.

Erin who? Her what? My my, how soon our memories fade!

The Palestinians have announced they are going to the United Nations next week to seek full membership.

If only the government's event management was as good as its political management. Its performance in the days following the weekend's crowd chaos on the Auckland waterfront has been deft, comfortably outmanoeuvring the Auckland Council.

Yesterday, a Marlborough teenager was sentenced to two years in prison, for battering 23 seals and pups to death with a steel pole.

Immigration has long been dry tinder throughout the western world, easily ignited by fiery words. We've seen it in New Zealand, from the poll tax and Chinese:cargo ratio imposed by government in 1881, through the dawn raids of the 1970s, to Winston Peter's anti-Asian rhetoric of the 1990s. Enter, Professor Margaret Mutu.

A common claim in favour of asset sales is that the sale price is usually the “net present value of future profits”, which means that the sale price plus the interest you save on your lower debt is about the same, over the long term, as the dividends you would have made from keeping the asset. Where does this claim come from?

The launch of Paul Holmes' book Daughters of Erebus in Parnell last Monday night was, like all of Paul's social events, a great night. I don't know about the wisdom of opening old wounds, but it was a rare opportunity to mix with the maestro's wide and eclectic circle of friends.

As America looks for meaning today, a decade on from the terror attacks of 9/11, one question keeps nagging at me – who exactly is winning the wars that have followed that awful day?

Every now and then it must be quite within the bounds of being a grown up to scream from the roof-tops, “OMG”. Wednesday night in North America was one such occasion.

Auckland, you've got to say, is looking fine. The new art gallery, the souped-up zoo, the new shared-space roads with people walking amongst the cars, the busy Britomart precinct, and the North Wharf, with its funky, Amsterdam-style bridge and people-friendly open spaces.

On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip, a Serbian nationalist and member of the Black Hand, shot and killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. The purpose was to throw off the yoke of Austro-Hungarian rule and form an independent Yugoslavia. Within 37 days, all of Europe was engulfed in a tripartite war.

Federated Farmers is one of the most powerful lobbying organisations in New Zealand; certainly the dominant voice amongst the many farming and rural groups.

Just a note about the Poll of Polls, which Rob has kindly updated. It includes the two television polls from the weekend, but not yet the newspaper efforts from the past two days.

The Swiss are rich, and yet, they like to ride on buses. They need not be rich to fund the buses; they spend less than New Zealand on transport.

As I write, the United Nations is reported to be moving to release its freeze on $100 billion worth of Libyan assets and recognize the country’s National Transitional Council as the new government of Libya.

I am not good at self-promotion, but I am going to give it a shot anyway, because if you can't write about your new book with the pretty pink cover on your very own blog, there probably isn't anywhere you can safely do so.

Past elections, with their moods, trends, characters and issues can offer a window on what's happening now. A oft-repeated line at the moment is that this election is looking an awful lot like 2002.

But what about further back?

Labour's descent to barely 30 percent in recent polls has prompted repeated comparisons to National's steep slide in 2002, when Bill English led National to its worst ever defeat. In this scenario, Phil Goff is this year's English and Labour is set for further pain as its support evaporates to 21 percent.

In 2009, in an attempt to improve its woeful performance, former chief executive Barry Mathews announced that the Corrections Department’s rehabilitation and reintegration services would be combined into one team. As part of this new strategy, Corrections Minister Judith Collins recently announced the Department is to employ 227 ca

Finally the international community has ramped up the pressure on Syria’s dictator to step aside.  “Time to get out of the way” Hilary Clinton scolded.

As the war in Afghanistan closes in on its 10th anniversary, the questions it provokes aren't getting any easier, and as we've felt this weekend with the loss of another New Zealand solider, the cost isn't getting any less, either.

The question bubbling to the surface now is that of withdrawal and how much more will be asked of New Zealand troops.

So, that's one of life's little mysteries solved, then.

It's less than a month until the greatest political distraction the country's seen since, well, who knows when.

That's right, the Rugby World Cup kicks off on September 9 and it's going to suck huge amounts of oxygen out of the political debate in the three months prior to polling day.

Sometimes fragments of news from all round the world fit together into a single story.

When Chris Kahui was acquitted of murdering his twin sons in 2008, law commissioner Sir Geoffrey Palmer mused that perhaps it was about time we did away with the right to silence for those accused of criminal offences.

He was quoted in the New Zealand Herald: "It is not a change that would happen quickly, but talking about it is not [typo edited] wrong."

Radio New Zealand does what it does do well. National Radio sets the standard in radio news, current affairs and talk.

The Denniston plateau, which is near Mount Augustus, has its own population of threatened giant snails.

Denniston is not a national park. It is not in Schedule 4. It is conservation land, that should have been part of a national park, the Kahurangi National Park. That status was withheld, because of the coal beneath.

Is David Parker's confirmation that he will stand in Epsom a sign of ambition or humility?

Britain has some very deep soul-searching ahead of it as the last few violent nights have shown there is a deeply angry parallel society that has probably developed over the last two generations, but now has tasted power.

What price are we willing to pay to make children safer in this country? For all that the timing of the government's green paper conveniently saves National from having to come up with any hard policy until after the election, it does raise the unpopular question of sacrifice and asks what you - and me - are prepared to give up for the sake of tackling our hideous statistics.

Earlier this week some international newspapers carried a photo of a woman standing outside the Capitol building inWashington with a placard telling those inside playing chicken with the US economy that  “we are not Greece”.